BofA Securities' economist Michelle Meyer said the COVID-19 pandemic will deliver a big negative shock to the housing market. They expect an adjustment lower in home sales and housing starts over the next three months. However, they believe home prices will hold relatively steady.
Meyer sees existing home sales down a cumulative 37% from the peak in February and new home sales down 51% from the January peak. Housing starts should fall a similar 57% from the peak, she added.
On prices, they forecast home prices will be pushed lower, hitting a low of -2.3% on a YOY basis in April 2021. They said the home price outlook appears tame relative to the sharp correction in sales due to three reasons:
StreetInsider.com Fri, 24 Apr 2020 09:03:00 -0400